The benefits of unemployment insurance

From nymag.com comes this diary of a female 24-year-old New Yorker making the best of her 18 months of unemployment insurance:

DAY ONE
Noon: Finally wake up and realize that it’s only noon. Automatically type into SeamlessWeb to order the usual brunch. It’s just too rainy to leave the apartment. Since getting laid off (okay it’s been six months now), life has been a cycle of drinking, boys, hangover, and Seamless.
4 p.m.: Attempts to go the gym prove futile as hangover from last night manifests itself in every way. Make plans for the night and convince another ex-banker to hit the bottle with me. Everyone used to work hard, play hard, but the ones still employed are too afraid of getting sacked to have late nights.

8 p.m.: Friend comes over to pregame with my bottles from Trader Joe’s (hey, I’m laid off), and we thank God for unemployment insurance because it pays us to live in our expensive luxury apartments with no income.
Midnight: We head to Greenhouse and there is a line down the block, but I know the door guy; coincidentally, he is also the manager of the café next to the investment bank I used to work for. Only in NYC. He promptly lets us in and gets us the first round.
4 a.m.: The night becomes fuzzy and I black out once again. You would think by 24 I would know the fine line between sober and blackout, but I haven’t figured that out yet.

Read on for days 2-7 of this tale of “approximately zero acts of intercourse (hard to tell); two dates to cover dinner costs, one with old man and one with vegetarian; approximately six hookups with six men; one aborted threesome.”

Yet another way in which government “safety nets” create moral hazard.

The attitude expressed here towards money and sex is fairly representative of this demographic (recent big name college grad investment bank / law firm employee living in Manhattan). I just wanted everyone to have a little more insight into where their tax money is going. Without your help the big banks would all be gone and their employees would be well on their way to becoming humble and productive members of society, like cab drivers.

Michael Hudson interview

Got this from Zero Hedge, an excellent new blog.

Takeaways:

The debt must be written down.

Ancient Babylon had better economic models than our Nobel laureates.

Our politicians’ constituents are not the voters, but the bankers, who are parasites.

Obama’s economic team is the same crew that raped Russia in the ’90s and they will support an oligarchy in the US as well.

The bailout blackmail bluff.

The bluff is not that nothing will happen to the economy if the bailout doesn’t pass, but that the bailout will do nothing to stop the depression (but lots to deepen it).

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Scare tactics.

All of a sudden, the economy is in dire danger of unknown horrors, we are hearing from Bernanke, Paulson, Bush, and the US press, especially the financial press. Unless the bailout passes, and RIGHT NOW, stocks will crash, your bank will fail, your home will keep losing value, and your employer will go broke and fire you. All of the bankers’ stooges who were trying to get us to look the other way since the credit markets started to freeze up 13 months ago are trying to scare the daylights out of the US public. How to avert the crisis? Give the con men who created it a blank check drawn on the US Treasury, of course.

This campaign reminded me of a spot-on comedy skit by the British Comics, Bird and Fortune, that popped up on YouTube 12 months ago, back when nearly all of my acquaintances all thought I was nuts for stocking up on put options and gold.

I recommend the whole thing, but the end (jump to 7:20 if you’re in a hurry) was particularly prescient. I transcribed it below, but it’s more fun to watch:

These are the lines was I reminded of today:

Interviewer: “But now, you see, the people are saying that now the crisis is going to turn into financial meltdown. I mean can that be avoided?”

Investment banker: “It can be avoided, provided that governments and central banks give us, the financial speculators, back the money that we’ve lost.”

Interviewer: “But isn’t that rewarding greed and stupidity?

Investment banker: “No, no. It’s rewarding what the Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, called “the ingenuity of the markets.””

Interviewer: “I see…and, and …

Investment banker: “We don’t want this money to spend on ourselves. We want this money just to go into the markets so that we can go on borrowing and lending money as if nothing had happened without thinking too much about it.”

Interviewer: “Yes, but, if the worst came to the worst, and you didn’t get this money, what then?”

Investment banker: “Well then, there would be another market crash, and then I would say to you what people like me always say, that it’s not us that would suffer, it’s your pension fund.”

Interviewer: “Thank you very much.”

_____

George Bush, tonight: “The stock market could drop even more, which would reduce the value of your retirement account.”

Call the bluff.

I have zero hope for a sensible outcome from the US government. Politicians are not debating the concept of bailouts and moral hazard; they are debating which irresponsible parties get how much. ‘Compromises’ will be reached that allow for grandstanding all around, but the core of the bill will give bankers what they want.

The executive salary cap for bailout recipients is a red herring. Manhattanites will figure out other ways to get their hands on these trillions, ways that don’t involve holding executive titles at big banks. Those banks are dead in the water anyway — it wouldn’t surprise me if they were completely nationalized over time. Another dispute is over equity — the government will get its equity position, sure, but the equity is worthless. And of course, everyone wants to throw in money for the idiots who are underwater on their mortgages — they’ll get theirs, if not in this round, the next.

By the way, anyone else notice the tactical similarity to how seven Septembers ago we were subjected to the same kind of scare tactics and rhetorical bombardment while another huge and unconstitutional bill was being rushed through Congress?

All over but the shouting.

We will get a depression. We’ve got it already. If US still had any character, this would be a short and relatively painless lesson in giving government too much power, which really means giving power to bankers. I say painless not because nobody will go broke — they will, in spades — but the pain will be like the first weeks in fat camp or reform school, not the gulags.

There will be no reformation this time. Americans of all intelligences are confused and ethically bankrupt after 100 years of saturation in nationalist and socialist propaganda by schools and media. This lack of a moral compass or common sense assures us that this will be the worst depression in our history, and maybe the last.

As the depression deepens, a terrified populace will allow the government to grab more and more power, until society is completely transformed. Remember those emergency powers that the executive granted itself last year? You better believe they are being readied. This stuff happens, folks. This is what human beings do to themselves, with great consistency. Freedom and prosperity are the exceptions to the rule as far as history is concerned.

——

PS — Buy the bailout rumor, sell the news? If I had to pick a date for the start of the Crash, it would be the day after Congress passes this bill.

Disclosure: I’m short the equity markets with put options and inverse ETFs. See disclaimer.

Bailout not just for mortgage debt. Paulson wants to take any “troubled assets.”

Better brush up on your Sun Tzu and Machiavelli if you want to survive in this investment climate, because now we know what rules they are playing by.

—-

Jeez. I wrote the following this morning, but I thought I was months ahead, not hours, and who knew they would use US tax dollars to bail out foreign banks? That is a surprise, but they don’t call it the international banking cartel for nothing.

I wrote: “The plan is to have the government take banks’ bad mortgage debt (will they add credit card, auto, student and corporate debt?)…”

Now I find this on Bloomberg this evening:

U.S. Treasury Widens Scope of Bad-Debt Plan Beyond Mortgages

By Dawn Kopecki

Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) — The Bush administration widened the scope of its $700 billion plan to avert a financial meltdown by including assets other than mortgage-related securities.

The U.S. Treasury submitted revised guidance to Congress on its plan, referring to its proposal to purchase so-called troubled assets, a change from its original plan for investments tied to home loans, according to a document obtained by Bloomberg News and confirmed by a congressional aide.

The change suggests the inclusion of instruments such as car and student loans, credit-card debt and any other troubled asset.

Firms that are headquartered outside the U.S. will now be eligible, in another change from the guidance sent to Congress yesterday, according to the document. The size of the plan remains unchanged.

“If you must break the law, do it to seize power: in all other cases observe it.”

Julius Caesar

They have long since crossed the Rubicon, and are playing winner take all.  Who know our bankers were such good students of history?

I can already hear the pro-Obama suckers saying, “what can you expect from the Bush administration and the Republicans? They are such fascists, always ready with a handout for their wealthy buddies.”

Well, take a look at Obama’s top donors and see if it isn’t a bunch of bankers who happen to be favoring him over the straw man from Arizona (here, here, and here). Besides, who better to enact a New Deal and get us into a really big war (Wilson, FDR, Johnson) than the Democrat wing of the ruling party?

Wall Street Journal has no problem with bailouts and more regulations.

As Jim Grant remarked yesterday, we should all observe a moment of silence for the passing of capitalism. This morning’s Journal, on the other hand, would have us believe that capitalism was too much trouble and always needed help from the government anyway.

The paper today contains a sly push for public support of the socialization of banking losses. The message: Paulson HAD to do it. Relax, bailouts are no big deal. We need them from time to time (to correct ‘market failures’), and they work out fine in the long run. Heck, they’re a tradition.

Lets look at the headlines and some snippets:

Article: “Shock Forced Paulson’s Hand”

“When government officials surveyed the flailing American financial system this week, they didn’t see only a collapsed investment bank or the surrender of a giant insurance firm. They saw the circulatory system of the U.S. economy — credit markets — starting to fail.”

“Huddled in his office Wednesday with top advisers, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson watched his financial-data terminal with alarm as one market after another began go haywire. Investors were fleeing money-market mutual funds, long considered ultra-safe. The market froze for the short-term loans that banks rely on to fund their day-to-day business. Without such mechanisms, the economy would grind to a halt. Companies would be unable to fund their daily operations. Soon, consumers would panic.”

“Mr. Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sped to Congress to seek approval for the biggest government intervention in financial markets since the 1930s. In a private meeting with lawmakers, according to a person present, one asked what would happen if the bill failed.

“If it doesn’t pass, then heaven help us all,” responded Mr. Paulson, according to several people familiar with the matter.”

My response:

Don’t let Mr. Paulson scare you. That’s how government always gets its subjects to grant it more power.

To let it all come crashing down is exactly what the country needs right now. Let the bad debts bankrupt the bankers and speculators. It is sickening to reward their kind of behavior, and it perpetuates the boom and bust cycles that hurt all of us. Innocent victims would learn a lesson in trusting bankers and regulators, and would not be as easy to swindle in the future.

To do nothing is the only honest and fair response, and it would be natural justice. It would set us up for a powerful recovery on a solid foundation, as we would remember the lessons for ages, as an earlier generation remembered the lessons of the 1930s.
Let asset prices crash. This is not real wealth anyway, this financial wealth people think they have.  The real wealth will still be here in our companies, roads, trains, farms, communications cables, water treatment plants, brains and personal networks.
Those who are afraid of free markets have no faith in mankind and no understanding of how the US became such a great place to live in once upon a time. It can be great again in no time at all if we throw off the shackles.

But it seems that most people’s minds are too far gone. A century of socialist propaganda in media and schools has poisoned even the sharpest minds of the nation, and I believe we will stay this tragic course until we reach Animal Farm.

Article: “In Turmoil, Capitalism Sets New Course”

“This past week marks a decisive turn in the evolution of American capitalism.”

“Gone is the faith, shared by the nation’s leadership with varying degrees of enthusiasm, that the best road to prosperity is to unleash financial markets to allocate capital, take risks, enjoy profits, absorb losses. Erased is the hope that markets correct themselves when they overshoot.”

“The Depression triggered, among other things, sweeping new rules governing the financial system — including the 1933 Glass Steagall law that separated commercial and investment banking until its repeal in 1999. The inevitable result of this crisis, once it ends, will be more government control of the financial system. The only questions now are how much tougher the new oversight will be, what form it will take and how long until the restrictions are loosened or evaded?”

“The shift in strategy reflects the realization by Mr. Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that the financial crisis was intensifying in recent days, endangering the entire economy. Confidence deteriorated markedly. Distrust spread. Credit markets weren’t functioning and lending dried up. Normal business wasn’t getting done. The two remaining free-standing investment banks were under severe pressure. The panic was spreading to ordinary Americans, who were beginning to pull money out of money-market mutual funds.”

“The government has bailed out financial institutions — and particularly their creditors — and taxpayers will pick up the tab for many of the institutions’ bad decisions. That could encourage bad behavior in the future. So, the government needs to craft a new regulatory regime to reduce those incentives.”

Article: “Government Bailouts: A US Tradition Dating to Hamilton”

My comment:

It’s no surprise to see this founding fascist’s name come up. Banker and president Alexander Hamilton was libertarian Thomas Jefferson’s ideological nemesis, but he has always been a hero to corporatists.

“The bubble pops. Lenders freeze. Depositors lose faith. Panic spreads. And the government steps in because nobody else will.”

“…a short walk through U.S. history demonstrates the point made by Alex J. Pollock of the American Enterprise Institute: “If you would like an empirical law of government behavior, it is that in a panic or threatened financial collapse, governments intervene — every government, every party, every country, every time.””

The Journal on the Panic of 1792:

“Hamilton engineered an innovative response. The Treasury borrowed money from the banks and used it to buy government bonds, lifting the market price. He also told banks to accept bonds as collateral for loans to securities brokers, with the government guaranteeing the collateral.

“What Hamilton did in 1792 is just like what Paulson and Bernanke are doing now,” said Mr. Sylla, who teaches at the Stern School of Business at New York University.

“The financial system stabilized in April, and not a single bank failed until 1809. Mr. Hamilton’s improvisation did the trick, or at least so concludes Mr. Wright, also at NYU. He named his son Alexander Hamilton Was Wright.”

The Journal on the Great Depression

My comment: You can always count the press to laud FDR, another of the top five worst presidents of all time.*

By 1933, four years after the infamous stock-market crash, about 1,000 American homeowners a day were losing their houses to the bank. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Congress created the Home Owners’ Loan Corp., an ambitious government agency designed to prevent foreclosures on an enormous scale.”

The current mortgage crisis involves securities backed by subprime home loans. But during the 1930s, there was no secondary market for securitized mortgages. So the agency had to hold the mortgages for the full terms. It finally closed up shop in 1951, with about 80% of borrowers having paid their loans off on time or early.

“The agency earned the government a small profit. “You save 80% of the people from being tossed out of their homes, and it didn’t end up costing the government a dollar,” said Lee Davison, a historian at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., another Great Depression creation.”

The Journal on the S&L Crisis:

“In 1989, after eight months of debate, Congress created the Resolution Trust Corp. to make depositors whole, investigate allegations of wrongdoing and deal with the husks of the S&L industry.

At the time, skeptics warned that government was reaching too far into the marketplace, and predicted darkly the RTC would be saddled with bad assets for generations.”

“Mr. Davison, the FDIC historian, wrote in a 2006 journal article: “Perhaps a measure of the RTC’s success is that little more than a decade after it closed, this agency that provoked so much debate is now largely forgotten.”


*The top five worst presidents of all time:

Hamilton. Authoritarian who opposed the republic of free states and supported a permanent president. Published Federalist Papers, a great propaganda lie. (Thank God for Jefferson and Madison.) Hamilton brought central banking to the US, and favored heavy handed regulations and taxes for the benefit of his banker cronies.

Lincoln. Corporate tool who favored taxes and handouts to the rich. In a needless and unconstitutional war, he destroyed the free alliance of independent states and killed 600,000 men. A totalitarian in war, he ordered total warfare (to that date considered immoral and barbaric) including a scorched earth policy and the killing of civilian men, women and children. Jailed newspaper editors, ran brutal concentration camps, did not free northern slaves, and wanted to ship all blacks to Liberia or Latin America.

Wilson. Megalomaniac ran on a promise to “keep our boys out of the war”. Worked tirelessly to get us in, and provoked the sinking of the Lusitania to such end. Massive wartime profits ensued for connected businesses. Signed Federal Reserve and income tax into law. Raised income tax to over 76% in war. Deficits caused massive inflation. Forcibly silenced war opposition. Pushed League of Nations, an enterprise of the international banking cartel.

Franklin Roosevelt. The father of American socialism taught bankers that it was OK to blow bubbles. Taught citizens that they didn’t have to save for a rainy day, established all manner of price and wage controls and bureaucracies. Packed the Supreme Court, took an extra term in office on the promise to keep the US “out of Europe’s war”, then worked around the clock to get us in. Provoked Germans and Japanese, knew for days that Japanese they were en route to Pearl Harbor and did nothing because the bankers and big corporations wanted war.

George Bush. Unessary war started by falsehoods, creeping totalitarianism, expanded socialism, and now the final death of any pretense of capitalism in the United States. His redeeming feature is that he is a sock puppet and too lazy to take an active interest in the horrors that he signs into law. Chronically incurious, he probably understands very little of what he has done.

What bankers’ plot? Greenberg, Fuld, Cayne, Blankfein among biggest losers.

Those crowing about sinister machinations by the banking cartel to topple world finance, buy up the scraps on the cheap, and set up a dictatorship while they’re at it are overestimating today’s financial honchos. Morgan and Rockefeller were the real deal, but these guys are just amateurs. Do these look like the spoils of a successful machination?

  • Dick Fuld’s Lehman shareholdings went from $1.2 billion to under $500k (Bloomberg). He was paid a total of $168.5 million from 2005 to 2007 for destroying the company, but after NYC and federal taxes, his real take-home pay was under 100M. Cool-Aid drinker that he was, how much of that has since been spent or lost in bad investments?
  • Jimmy Cayne’s stake in Bear Stearns, once a cool $1 billion, sold for $61 million in March.
  • Lloyd Blankfein’s 1.64 million Goldman shares have gone from $410 million to $164 million (and falling) within the last 12 months, but at least he has been taking home $50 million bonuses lately.
  • Last but certainly not least, the venerable Hank Greenberg has gone from mega-wealthy to just plain rich. Yahoo! Finance reports that he holds roughly 12.8 million in AIG stock, which would have gone for over $900 million last year, but today would fetch under $30 million. Bloomberg has a higher figure, counting controlled entities that collectively seem to have lost nearly $24 billion since AIG peaked at over $70 per share. My last quote was $2.25, putting the present total at well under $1 billion.

The US financial system is indeed corrupt and anything but a free market. Bankers do have politicians and regulators (such as Fed chairmen) in their pockets, but the boom-bust cycle is not intentional. It is the inevitable but unintended result of very narrow, short-term interests run wild. Bankers have bought from the government a license to inflate (most inflation is due to credit), and the fraud of fractional reserve lending with socialized risk always ends badly.

Most people used to understand that only gold and silver were money, and that paper promises (aka ‘notes’) could only create phoney wealth and depressions. Maybe parts of this latest lesson will take, but I’m not holding my breath.